Probabilistic Thinking and Probability ...

The aim of this paper is to develop and synthesise ideas about probabilistic thinking and highlight the considerations by illustrating how the concept of probability is entrenched with the concept of risk. We use a hermeneutic way of argument, relate the ideas to the mathematical and philosophical background of probability, and illustrate our ideas by examples that relate probability considerations to risk. Special features of competing intuitions and strategies link probabilistic thinking to its roots in psychology, to the paradigm of causality, to its empirical expressions, and to thinking and decisions. Higher-ordered probabilistic thinking is described by the categories of the theoretical character of probability, conditional probability, and by the construct of probabilistic evidence. The robustness of probabilistic misconceptions is explained by an archetypical way of thinking. The peculiar logic of decisions adds to probabilistic thinking. Finally, the purpose of probability is declared as central issue for teaching and understanding probability. Throughout, the connection of probability to risk enhances probabilistic concepts and reveals a twin-character of probability and risk.

Keywords: Probabilistic thinking, Probability literacy, Risk literacy, Mathematical thinking, Theoretical character of probability, Probabilistic evidence, Conditional probability, Archetypical strategies, Logic of decisions, Insurance contract.