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Shared Investment Projects and Forecasting Errors: Setting Framework Conditions for Coordination and Sequencing Data Quality Activities
Untertitel:
Kurzfassung:

This paper investigates the impact of inaccurate forecasting on the coordination of distributed investment decisions. In particular, by setting up a computational multi-agent model of a stylized firm, we investigate the case of investment opportunities that are mutually carried out by organizational departments. The forecasts of concern pertain to the initial amount of money necessary to launch and operate an investment opportunity, to the expected intertemporal distribution of cash flows, and the departments' efficiency in operating the investment opportunity at hand. We propose a budget allocation mechanism for coordinating such distributed decisions. The paper provides guidance on how to set framework conditions, in terms of the number of investment opportunities considered in one round of funding and the number of departments operating one investment opportunity, so that the coordination mechanism is highly robust to forecasting errors. Furthermore, we show that - in some setups - a certain extent of misforecasting is desirable from the firm's point of view as it supports the achievement of the corporate objective of value maximization. We then address the question of how to improve forecasting quality in the best possible way, and provide policy advice on how to sequence activities for improving forecasting quality so that the robustness of the coordination mechanism to errors increases in the best possible way. At the same time, we show that wrong decisions regarding the sequencing can lead to a decrease in robustness. Finally, we conduct a comprehensive sensitivity analysis and prove that - in particular for relatively good forecasters - most of our results are robust to changes in setting the parameters of our multi-agent simulation model.

Schlagworte:
Publikationstyp: Beitrag in Zeitschrift (Autorenschaft)
Art der Veröffentlichung Online Publikation
Erschienen in: PLOS ONE
PLOS ONE
zur Publikation
 ( Public Library of Science; )
Erscheinungdatum: 24.03.2015
Titel der Serie: -
Bandnummer: -
Heftnummer: -
Erstveröffentlichung: Ja
Version: -
Seite: S. 1 - 42
Gesamtseitenanzahl: 42 S.

Identifikatoren

ISBN: -
ISSN: 1932-6203
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0121362
AC-Nummer: -
Homepage: http://www.plosone.org
Open Access
  • In einem Open-Access-Journal erschienen

Zuordnung

Organisation Adresse
Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften
 
Institut für Unternehmensführung
 
Abteilung für Controlling und Strategische Unternehmensführung
Universitätsstrasse 67
9020  Klagenfurt
Österreich
   ulrike.kette@aau.at
https://www.aau.at/csu
zur Organisation
Universitätsstrasse 67
AT - 9020  Klagenfurt
Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften
 
Institut für Finanzmanagement
 
Abteilung Finance and Accounting
Universitätsstraße 65-67
9020  Klagenfurt am Wörthersee
Österreich
   gertrud.matschek@aau.at
https://www.aau.at/fin
zur Organisation
Universitätsstraße 65-67
AT - 9020  Klagenfurt am Wörthersee

Kategorisierung

Sachgebiete
  • 101015 - Operations Research
  • 102009 - Computersimulation
  • 502052 - Betriebswirtschaftslehre
  • 502006 - Controlling
  • 502044 - Unternehmensführung
Forschungscluster
  • Selbstorganisierende Systeme
  • Unternehmertum
Zitationsindex
  • Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI Expanded)
Informationen zum Zitationsindex: Thomson Reuters Master Journal List
Peer Reviewed
  • Ja
Publikationsfokus
  • Science to Science (Qualitätsindikator: I)
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