Publication: A stochastic model for NFL games and po...
Master data
Title: | A stochastic model for NFL games and point spread assessment |
Subtitle: | |
Abstract: | Statistical modelling of sports data is indispensable to analyse the sports behaviour and apprehend significant inferences that are helpful to adopt decisive strategies before or during the sports events. This paper introduces a stochastic model as the distribution of difference derived from the Bivariate Affine-Linear Exponential distribution. The distribution of difference is first ever used to model the margin of victory that provides an adequate fitting on the observed data. A simulation study is carried out to observe the stability of the model parameters through their average estimated values, biases, standard errors, root mean square errors and confidence intervals. The performance of the proposed model is examined by applying it on the real data of the National Football League and comparing the results with those of the existing models. Finally, the quantile function of the proposed distribution is used to assess the possible range of point spreads for winning the bet in a particular game. |
Keywords: | Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty, Statistics and Probability |
Publication type: | Article in journal (Authorship) |
Publication date: | 16.09.2022 (Online) |
Published by: |
Journal of Applied Statistics
Journal of Applied Statistics
(
Auerbach Publications / Taylor & Francis Group;
)
to publication |
Title of the series: | - |
Volume number: | - |
Issue: | - |
First publication: | Yes |
Version: | - |
Page: | pp. 1 - 14 |
Versionen
Keine Version vorhanden |
Publication date: | 16.09.2022 |
ISBN (e-book): | - |
eISSN: | 1360-0532 |
DOI: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2022.2120973 |
Homepage: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02664763.2022.2120973 |
Open access |
|
Authors
Assignment
Organisation | Address | ||
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Fakultät für Technische Wissenschaften
Institut für Statistik
|
AT - 9020 Klagenfurt am Wörthersee |
Categorisation
Subject areas | |
Research Cluster | No research Research Cluster selected |
Citation index |
Information about the citation index: Master Journal List
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Peer reviewed |
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Publication focus |
Classification raster of the assigned organisational units:
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working groups | No working group selected |
Cooperations
Organisation | Address | ||
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University of the Punjab
|
PK Lahore |
Research activities
Projects: | No related projects |
Publications: | No related publications |
Events: | No related events |
Lectures: | No related lectures |